#91 | Scepticism is hopeless
"Men are never convinced of your reasons, of your sincerity, of the seriousness of your sufferings, except by your death. So long as you are alive, your case is doubtful; you have a right only to their scepticism." ― Albert Camus (The Fall)
"Books give a soul to the universe, wings to the mind, flight to the imagination, and life to everything." ― Plato
A friend of mine is, he claims, awakened. And I'm sceptical. Every time it comes up, I become uncomfortable because I react this way. Being sceptical is not a kind or compassionate quality. If scepticism were in Dante's Inferno, it would loiter with lust. It has flavours of envy and a sprinkling of bitterness. Sceptics don't feel good and live worse lives because of it.
The first thing to clarify is what I mean by scepticism: it's when I (or anyone) doubt a claim is valid or will happen. We can be sceptical people generally, or we can be sceptical about things that may or may not happen. I've written before that, at one point, I was unsure of the moon landings happening in '69.
By contrast, the opposite of a sceptic is a dreamer, a hoper and an optimist. They are individuals who believe we're either in utopia or are at least trending towards it. I am, by this definition, almost always the opposite of a sceptic. I believe even the worst people are good, and there is a second side of the coin for every unlucky toss. Even so, I'm sometimes sceptical. I hate it. But is it useful?
One can imagine that, in previous generations, scepticism was helpful. In ancestral Ireland, I would question if my brother assured me that finishing the last of this season's potatoes was okay, noting "we're often lucky and will find some tomorrow". Likewise, if water was a six-day walk away, "but we'll do it in three, so travel light and only bring one bottle", some healthy scepticism would not go amiss. (I would carry all the water I could.) Still, the world most of us live in, fortunately, is not one where we're on the brink of drought and starvation. It's a world of plenty; for most of the west, we have rather too much.
Today, the problem with being doubtful is that everything is highly uncertain at an early stage and can be talked out of being done. Most ideas, even the great ones, appear bad at the start. Yokeru looked like a bad idea at the beginning, and it now looks like a good one. Not because it was a bad idea, but because, by being amateur, we'd inadvertently hidden whatever was good about it. The copywriting was a mess, and the app was hard to use. We didn't know what we were doing (I still don't). All good ideas start this shakey way. If they looked great from the outset, they would already exist.
So, when we are sceptical, we miss things, as Warren Buffett did when he passed on Amazon: "I was too dumb to realize what was going to happen, ... I did not think he was going to succeed on the scale that he has. ... We missed it entirely." Paul Graham dismisses scepticism. Instead, he asks 'why will it work?' and doubles down on those points. Saying an idea 'will never work' is a mistake. Most nascent things will never work as they are today. Yet when they work, they are more intelligent, healthier beasts, the products of years of solving issues, re-building and re-thinking.
So, back to my allegedly awakened friend. In being sceptical, I'm missing something too. I have the opportunity to ask all the How and Why questions I want. I'd get thoughtful answers back. It's like running late and not catching the last train to the airport. Then being offered a spare seat in a taxi to get there in time, yet turning the lift down because there might be traffic! Scepticism is a cynical way of living; it’s hopeless, and today we need hope more than oxygen.
My week in books
The Art of War by Sun Tzu. Surprisingly easy and short. I am now ready for war and recommend it. It's perhaps the oldest piece of writing I've ever read cover-to-cover. A quote: "Appear weak when you are strong, and strong when you are weak." And, "Victorious warriors win first and then go to war, while defeated warriors go to war first and then seek to win"
Hector Hughes and I are having a monthly book clubby-thing, where we read a book a month: This quarter, the topic is ‘war’ (!). This month, July, we’re reading The Art of War by Sun Tzu. In August we’ll read On War, and September it will be The History of the Peloponnesian Wars. Reply to this email to join us.
Book tickets to this gig
Wandering Lex’s (Monty’s) first-ever album release party!!!! It's on August 12 (a Friday night) at Bush Hall, in Shepherds Bush. It's being transformed into an island for the evening (samosas, watermelons and sand etc.), and they will be performing a soon-to-be-released full-length album made in Kenya! Listen to a flavour of the island sounds.
Book tickets (£16.80) ASAP (they are selling out). I can't wait to see you there! Link: https://dice.fm/event/gro9a-a-night-on-the-island-12th-aug-bush-hall-london-tickets
Live well,
Hector